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Adjusted Point Per Game Rates

James' post prompted me to look into the scoring environments that each of the top 20 in PPG from his post and adjust them. So, I've done that.

Basically, I've gone through Hockey Reference and gotten the average Total Goals Per Game for the league in each year from 1960-2009. I then averaged out the scoring environments for a player's career span.

For instance, Wayne Gretzky played from 1979-80 until 1998-99. From 80-99, the average scoring environment was exactly 7.00. For someone like Mario Lemieux who had his career interrupted, I simply took the average scoring environment from 1984-85 to 1993-94, then from 95-97, and then 2000-2006. I then averaged those together to get a total scoring environment of 6.28 total goals per game during his career.

I believe the way to adjust this is to take a player's points per game total multiplied by the current scoring environment, then divided by the player's career scoring environment. I used the "current environment" to be the scoring environment to be from 2005-06 through the 2008-09 season.

An example is Dale Hawerchuk and his 1.186 PPG. He played from 1981-82 through 1996-97. The average scoring environment over that period of time was 7.17 total goals per game. To adjust to today's (06-09) rates, it's simply this (someone correct me if I'm wrong):

1.186*5.86/7.17 = 0.969.

The 5.86 is the total GPG from 06-09 and the 0.969 is his new scoring rate adjusted to now-a-days.

The new Top 20, sorted by an Adjusted Point Per Game Total:

Name

From

To

GP

PPG

Environment

2006-09

Adjusted

PPG Diff

Prev Rank

New Rank

Rank Diff

Mario Lemieux

1985

2006

915

1.883

6.28

5.86

1.757

-0.126

2

1

1

Wayne Gretzky

1980

1999

1487

1.921

7.00

5.86

1.608

-0.313

1

2

-1

Sidney Crosby

2006

2009

280

1.379

5.86

5.86

1.379

0.000

5

3

2

Peter Forsberg

1995

2008

706

1.254

5.61

5.86

1.309

0.056

11

4

7

Bobby Orr

1967

1979

657

1.393

6.35

5.86

1.285

-0.107

4

5

-1

Evgeni Malkin

2007

2009

232

1.263

5.76

5.86

1.285

0.022

9

6

3

Alex Ovechkin

2006

2009

315

1.279

5.86

5.86

1.279

0.000

7

7

0

Jaromir Jagr

1991

2008

1273

1.256

5.92

5.86

1.243

-0.013

10

8

2

Mike Bossy

1978

1987

752

1.497

7.50

5.86

1.170

-0.327

3

9

-6

Eric Lindros

1993

2007

760

1.138

5.79

5.86

1.152

0.014

19

10

9

Joe Sakic

1989

2009

1378

1.191

6.06

5.86

1.152

-0.039

15

11

4

Phil Esposito

1964

1981

1281

1.241

6.37

5.86

1.142

-0.099

12

12

0

Marcel Dionne

1972

1989

1348

1.314

7.18

5.86

1.072

-0.242

6

13

-7

Steve Yzerman

1984

2006

1514

1.159

6.47

5.86

1.050

-0.109

18

14

4

Peter Stastny

1981

1995

977

1.268

7.35

5.86

1.011

-0.257

8

15

-7

Kent Nilsson

1980

1995

553

1.241

7.33

5.86

0.992

-0.249

13

16

-3

Pat LaFontaine

1984

1998

865

1.171

6.95

5.86

0.987

-0.184

17

17

0

Guy Lafleur

1972

1991

1126

1.202

7.18

5.86

0.981

-0.221

14

18

-4

Dale Hawerchuk

1982

1997

1188

1.186

7.17

5.86

0.969

-0.217

16

19

-3

Bernie Federko

1977

1990

1000

1.130

7.42

5.86

0.892

-0.238

20

20

0

 

Environment is the scoring environment during the career of the player. Adjusted is a player's PPG totals adjusted for todays scoring rates and Prev Ranking is their ranking in unadjusted PPG while New Rank is their, obviously, current ranking in adjusted PPG. The final column, Diff, is the amount a player rose or fell by adjusting for the environment. Like I had thought in my comment on James' initial post, Eric Lindros' 1.14 PPG total (actually 1.138) and Bernie Federko's 1.13 (actually 1.130) were not that close. Federko's adjusted rates put him last on this list, dropping his PPG total 0.238 -- which over the course of 82 games is just about 20 points. Meanwhile, Big E played during a defensive-era ushered in after the strike-shortened season in the middle-1990's, and gives his PPG rates a boost. His PPG totals were pretty much on par, as the scoring environment he played in (5.79) isn't that much lower than it's been since the lockout. However, he does move up the list 9 spots due to guys like Marcel Dionne, Peter Stastny, Kent Nilsson and Guy Lafleur dropping due to playing in high offensive eras.

At the very least, this is an interesting way to look at players from different eras in a more favorable light.

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

This item was created by a member of this blog's community and is not necessarily endorsed by From The Rink.

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