Handicapping the playoff race

With exactly two weeks left to play, the question we're all looking to answer at this time of year is, who's going to finish where?

And while there is certainly room for a lot of movement in the final six or seven games of the regular season, there are a few things we can figure out.

Here's a look at where we're headed (the percentages are just me eyeballing it):

Eastern Conference

1. Buffalo: with at least a five-point lead on the next-closest team and seven games to play, top spot is the Sabres' to lose. 95%
   
   
2. New Jersey/Pittsburgh: it'll be the Atlantic Division winner here, and the Devils have a slightly easier schedule with a game in hand. 55% NJ
   
   
3. Atlanta/Tampa: here comes the Southeast... the Lightning has been in the toilet, especially in goal, throughout March and the Thrashers are hot. This one still may come down to the final game of the season, when these two square off. 60% Atl
   
   
4. Ottawa/Pittsburgh/New Jersey: the four-five spot is hockey's Group of Death, as there'll be one good team going home regardless of who finishes here. Ottawa hasn't lost in regulation in ages and gets the sliding Bruins twice more. 65% Ott / 20% Pitt
   
   
5. Pittsburgh/New Jersey/Ottawa: ditto from above, with the loser of the Atlantic Division sweepstakes likely to slot in here, starting on the road in the Canadian capital. 60% Pitt / 30% NJ
   
   
6. N.Y Rangers/Tampa: my have the Rangers surprised lately. Henrik Lundqvist has been the best goaltender in the league the past two plus months, which should put them in this spot. 70% NYR / 20% TB
   
   
7. Tampa/Carolina/N.Y. Islanders/Montreal/Toronto: ah what a mess... it's sort of a grab bag here, and will come down to how each team plays in the head-to-head games against their fellow bubble clubs. Carolina has a favourable schedule and has seemed more motivated lately and Tampa holds the tiebreaker with 41 wins. 40% TB / 30% Car
   
   
8. Carolina/N.Y. Islanders/Montreal/Toronto/Tampa: more mess... I like Carolina and the Islanders more than the two Canadian clubs, but it's going to be awfully close — and I wouldn't be surprised in the least if a tiebreaker decides it (and the Leafs and Isles are low on wins). 45% Car / 25% NYI

Western Conference

1. Detroit/Nashville/Anaheim: one of these three gets top spot in the West, and I'm going to go with the Red Wings — although the Ducks have been the hottest of the trio. There's really not a ton separating the three. 35% Det / 30% Nash / 30% Ana
   
   
2. Anaheim/six other teams: it depends both on who wins the Pacific Division and just how hard-charging the teams at the top of the Northwest can stay. 50% Ana
   
   
3. Minnesota/Vancouver/Anaheim/Dallas/San Jose: probably the Northwest winner here, but not necessarily. The Wild have been particularly impressive since Christmas. 45% Min / 35% Van
   
   
4. Nashville/Detroit/five others: still too difficult to call, although the Central Division runner-up probably falls here if not at the top. 50% Nas / 35% Det
   
   
5. Vancouver/Minnesota/others: Northwest runner-up seems a likely candidate given how well they've played, but Dallas is right in here, too. Not that it's a plum spot to start the playoffs. 45% Van / 35% Min
   
   
6. Dallas/San Jose/others: the Pacific runner-up may fall here, and both the Stars and Sharks have been terrific. 35% Dal / 30% SJ
   
   
7. San Jose/Dallas/others: stick the third-place team from one of hockey's toughest divisions in here. 35% SJ / 30% Dal
   
   
8. Calgary/Colorado: ah yes, finally a playoff race in the West we can pin down to two teams. The Flames probably aren't climbing over anyone, and the Avalanche can really only hope to catch their division rivals. And Colorado's been terrific lately. 60% Cal / 35% Col